The announcement yesterday that the EU will phase out Russian oil imports will have dramatic and long-term consequences for the tanker market, according to Marsoft’s senior analyst Aditya Trivedi. “Even if the ban on Russian oil is to be lifted in the future, European companies and traders will seek to limit their dependency on Russian shipments etc, which can cause a significant shift in the crude and product trades. One consequence is an increase in the average distance traveled to deliver a tonne of oil. That means that the recovery we expect in the tanker market could be even stronger. Unfortunately the risks of a global recession have also increased as a result of Russia’s attack.”
The Russian sanctions are also distorting some of the well-known benchmarks of tanker rates. According to Aditya, “Some of the most commonly quoted tanker indexes include sanctioned trades that many owners will not consider trading nowadays. Eliminating those unrepresentative routes from the benchmarks shows that, although rates for Suezmax and Aframax tankers have improved considerably, they remain far below the rates we are seeing for voyages out of Russia, which are subject to sanctions.”
Marsoft’s assessment of the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the response by the EU and the USA is detailed in its forthcoming market update. We look forward to reviewing the implications of these important events with our clients.