How long will elevated VLGC rates last?

December 5, 2025

By Megan Kennedy

Spot rates for conventional VLGCs have started the last month of 2025 averaging more than 30% higher than rates in December of 2024. So far this month, VLGC rates have topped over $60,000 per day, and for Q4-to-date, conventional rates are averaging roughly $57,000 per day – some 40% higher than the same quarter last year.

The fourth quarter is typically a lower-demand period for VLGCs, whereby Asian demand falls back after its Q3 seasonal highs. With third quarter rates averaging $65,000 per day this year, supported by the shuffling of trade patterns (compared to $34,000 per day in 24Q3), and with VLGC fleet growth remaining low throughout this year, this has added support to rates as we close out the year.

So, the question many are asking now is: how long can elevated rates last?

We discuss this, as well as our forecasts for LPG trade and asset values, in our latest LPG market report. Our updated forecast expects LPG shipping demand will be determined largely by LPG import demand in Asia, where growth is currently the strongest, by US (and Middle Eastern) export capacity expansions, and by price dynamics between US and Middle Eastern suppliers, as well as by further trade tensions and tariff developments.

Under the assumptions that US LPG trade to China continues to gradually increase (despite the current 10% tariff on US exports to China that appears here to stay for the near-term), and with this trade beginning to normalize in 2026, as well as expanding US LPG export capacity, we see these factors as supportive of spot rates in the near-term. For 2026 as a whole, we project rates will average a slightly higher $53,000 per day, compared to our expectation of an average rate of $48,000 per day in 2025.

After 2026, however, the picture will take a turn and rates are expected to fall on the back of high deliveries and VLGC/VLAC fleet growth.

For more detailed information and LPG analysis, check out our latest report.