Marsoft's latest market eBriefs show both the tanker and dry bulk sectors entering 2026 with solid momentum, shaped by a mix of supportive fundamentals and evolving geopolitical dynamics. While each market faces its own set of drivers, both share an early-year strength that may moderate as supply and routing conditions shift later in the year.
Tanker Market: Strong Fundamentals, Heightened Enforcement Environment
Tanker markets begin 2026 on firmer footing, with early-January activity lifting spot earnings – particularly in the VLCC segment. Tight effective supply, firm long-haul employment, and rising compliance considerations continue to shape the playing field.
Key developments include:
- VLCCs leading early-year strength, supported by tighter tonnage availability and firm one-year TC rates
- Growing sanctions enforcement, driven by developments in Venezuela and Iran, sharpening the divide between compliant and non-compliant fleets
- Fleet bifurcation widening, increasing the importance of vessel quality, compliance, and financing access
- Red Sea rerouting still a major influence, sustaining tonne-mile inflation until gradual normalization later in 2026
- Secondhand values holding firm, supported by scarcity of tonnage and capital reallocation into crude segments
Overall, the tanker market starts 2026 with supportive fundamentals but elevated operational and geopolitical uncertainty.
Dry Bulk Market: Capes Outperform as 2026 Strength Looks Front-Loaded
Dry bulk markets ended 2025 stronger than anticipated, with clear performance divergence across segments. Capesizes led the upside on robust Atlantic Basin iron ore flows, while geared segments remained steady on regional trade support.
Key observations from the latest report:
- Capesize earnings exceeded expectations, buoyed by Brazil and West Africa iron ore tonne-miles
- Handysize markets delivered an upside surprise, benefiting from firm minor bulk flows and regional Asian trades
- 26H1 appears set to outperform 2025, before accelerating vessel deliveries and Red Sea normalization gradually soften market balance
- China remains the major swing factor, with firm iron ore demand but weaker steam coal imports expected
- Geopolitical developments – from Red Sea transit recovery to Guinea's political stability – remain important to monitor
Dry bulk enters 2026 with promising early-year dynamics but growing supply-side pressure in the second half.
For access to the full Tanker and Dry Bulk Market eBriefs – or to discuss how Marsoft's analysis can support your decisions in 2026 – contact us at Marsoft.
