Impact of Coronavirus
Marsoft’s base case view is that the virus will have a significant impact on the Chinese economy for the next 3-4 months, before conditions return to normal in the second half of the year.
We see this having a significant negative impact on Chinese oil demand and imports in 20H1, with OPEC likely cutting production in response, so this is a clear negative for the tanker market.
On the dry bulk side, we see a modest negative impact for steel production.
Our Low Case sees a much worse coronavirus situation, lasting through all of 2020, and helping to push the global economy into recession during the second half of the year.
We will comment further on the coronavirus impact in our upcoming 20Q1 release, scheduled to come out later this month.