Market Analysis

 

More than one hundred major international shipping companies including leading banks, shipowners and charterers rely on Marsoft’s systems and analysis to support the development of their shipping strategies.

 

Marsoft’s systems provide a complete, consistent and readily accessible source of quality-controlled information on all key market trends.  No other single source provides comparable breath and depth of information.  The Marsoft Decision Support System was first introduced in 1985 and has been continuously updated and enhanced by our team of shipping experts since that time.

 

Our customers value the fact that Marsoft is an independent consulting firm that provides unbiased market opinions and systems to our international client base.

 

As a client you can draw upon our extensive market expertise and gain access to our detailed databases and forward-looking information for your cycle management process.  The cost savings of having Marsoft as part of your analytical team are substantial.  In addition to providing best practice decision support tools we have the flexibility to add value through ad-hoc or regular consulting assignments individually tailored to support your strategic decisions.

 

Marsoft helps its clients be the first to see and act upon threats and opportunities in the market creates strategic advantages and Marsoft’s provides early warning through its market evaluation tools and regular reports.  Marsoft has an outstanding track record in correctly anticipating market developments.  We have an 80% success rate in predicting market turning points.  For more details on our track record please download the Marsoft Forecast Accuracy Report at Marsoft Forecast Accuracy

 

Marsoft Decision Support Systems

Marsoft’s decision support systems for the dry bulk, tanker and containership markets have become a standard in the industry and provide a comprehensive framework for active cycle management procedures.  Our systems provide detailed tabulation of worldwide seaborne trade, developments in fleet and shipyard capacity, and rate and price information for selected vessel sizes.  Marsoft’s five year forecasts of likely supply/demand developments and implications for rates and ship values are updated quarterly. 

 

The systems are designed for decision makers to create their own scenarios thus leveraging internal information and creating a framework for a consistent evaluation process.

 

 

Key Features of the Marsoft Decision Support System

• A proven, easy to use, computer based tool for evaluating future market trends
• Completely transparent. No black box
• A detailed database of trade flows and other key demand parameters from 1980
• Shipyard capacity focus and fleet development details
• Five year forecast of trade developments and changes in fleet size
• Five year forecast of rates and ship values for standard vessel sizes
• Designed for users to develop internal scenarios for stress testing
• Regular support through system updates, reports and client meetings
• “flight simulation” capabilities
• Full training and support provided

 

Volume and Pattern of Trade

Marsoft maintains detailed databases on historical and future flow of the main seaborne commodities.  Our ongoing analysis takes into account raw material production, stockpiling, import requirements and export capacity for all major importing and exporting regions.

 

We monitor developments in oil prices, economic growth and oil consumption and production to evaluate likely developments in oil requirements.  Movements through major pipelines and canals are also tracked.   Projections of world wide refinery capacity are regularly updated to assess the impact on the crude oil versus oil products import split as well as likely developments in regional trading patterns.

 

Fleet Developments

Active monitoring of fleet developments is a vital part of the market evaluation process.  Marsoft closely follows ordering activity, ship deliveries and scrapping volumes on an ongoing basis.  More importantly we provide estimates of future supply growth based on likely developments for newbuilding- and second hand prices, future earnings capacity, age structure of the fleets, regulatory changes and shipyard capacity.  Marsoft also monitors port congestion to evaluate the effect on fleet productivity.

 

Shipyard Capacity

The boom years of 2003-2008 saw significant expansion of shipyard capacity in Asia.  The market crash in the fall of 2008 had immediate and dramatic effects on the shipyard industry as owners defaulted on contracts which in turn resulted in a string of bankruptcies among smaller yards.  Understanding how these events will impact future delivery schedules and fleet growth requires special focus and the ability to develop sensitivity analysis for such parameters is key to evaluating the market cycles.  Marsoft has the tools and supporting services in place to assist our clients in assessing how such sudden may impact their shipping strategies.

 

Rates and Values

Marsoft’s market evaluation tools and supporting services provide our clients with a solid platform for evaluating likely future trends for charter earnings and vessel values.  We provide a range of short and long term forecasts which are used by our customers as starting points for their internal strategic planning.

 

Reports

Marsoft’s publishes monthly, quarterly and semiannual reports for the dry bulk, tanker and containership markets. The reports provide a complete compilation of recent developments in the markets and a review of likely future developments.  Marsoft also provides “flash reports” that evaluate significant market developments on an ongoing basis.

 

Our regular reports provide a detailed analysis of all important factors driving the dry bulk, tanker and containership markets. Some of the specific topics addressed include:

 

 

Support

We are proud of the level of support we provide to our clients.  From initial training sessions onwards, we guarantee to engage in an active dialogue and offer support with program usage, shipping market questions and prompt and proactive technical guidance.  Marsoft’s team of analysts and specialists are available by phone and email via local regional offices and our aim is to meet with clients regularly to discuss their individual concerns and key issues.

 

Marsoft’s regular client meetings are well-known in the industry for offering topical market presentations, guest speakers and exclusive networking opportunities.  Meetings are held in Europe, the Middle East, Asia and the United States and provide a unique forum for informed discussions on market events and opportunities and threats.

 

Special Projects

In addition to its ongoing review of the dry bulk, tanker, containership and LNG markets Marsoft provides specialized market studies on a proprietary basis.  Marsoft’s unique expertise in the maritime industry, world trade, and the shipbuilding business provides a solid foundation for a very wide range of studies.  Some of our recent projects are summarized below.

 

Strategic review of the global shipping markets

A comprehensive strategic study of the tanker, LNG, dry cargo, container, chemical, drillships, FPSO/FSO markets.  Detailed investment analysis was carried out for each shipping segment. Deliverables included recommendations on optimal risk adjusted cost of transportation and investment strategies plus benchmarking of other oil majors.

 

LR2 Market

Chemical Tankers